Weather and air travel: In 2024, global temperatures surpassed the critical 1.5°C threshold, accelerating extreme weather events worldwide. Droughts, storms, and shifting jet streams are becoming more intense and unpredictable, disrupting ecosystems, economies, and industries like aviation. With turbulence on the rise and flight efficiency impacted, climate change is reshaping our skies.
Meteorological expert Kutay Mihliardic helps us understand these dramatic shifts, explaining how a warming atmosphere fuels extreme weather and impacts air travel. This article explores the most striking changes and their far-reaching consequences.
How has climate change affected global weather patterns, and what are the most noticeable changes in recent years?
In 2024, we surpassed the 1.5°C global warming threshold set by the Paris Agreement for the first time, marking a critical milestone in the climate crisis. This warming has fundamentally disrupted global weather patterns, making extreme weather events both more frequent and more intense.
Some of the most noticeable changes I would say:
Hydrological Extremes: Prolonged droughts are now more common, often followed by intense thunderstorms, hails, hurricanes, tornadoes, and flash floods. The Mediterranean Basin, for instance, has seen devastating back-to-back droughts and record-breaking rainfall.
Tropical and Polar Systems: Warmer ocean temperatures are fueling stronger and longer-lasting tropical cyclones, while Arctic ice loss disrupts polar jet streams, allowing cold air to reach further south and linger longer.
Jet Streams and Atmospheric Flow: Warming weakens the stability of jet streams, slowing their movement. This results in prolonged weather systems, like heatwaves and cold spells, persisting in the same regions for extended periods.
These disruptions are reshaping ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources, with visible consequences such as reduced crop yields, rising sea levels due to glacier melt, and amplified risks to coastal communities. Surpassing 1.5°C shows how fragile the balance in the climate system has become and highlights the urgent need for mitigation efforts.
How does the Earth’s surface warming contribute to changes in the atmosphere’s composition and behaviour?
I would say that surface temperature increases slightly, triggering a positive feedback cycle in our Earth system. This sequence unfolds as follows:
Increased evaporation from the oceans adds more water vapour—a potent greenhouse gas—to the atmosphere.
Higher water vapour levels enhance the greenhouse effect, trapping even more heat.
This additional heat accelerates ice melting, particularly in polar regions, reducing the Earth’s albedo (reflection ability). With less solar radiation reflected, more heat is absorbed by the surface and oceans.
The absorbed heat drives further warming, completing the cycle.
There are additional cycles I can tell you about, but this cyclical mechanism mainly amplifies global warming, destabilizes atmospheric pressure gradients, and invigorates jet streams, resulting in intensified and chaotic weather patterns globally.
The crucial thing here is what starts as slight warming—largely triggered by human activities—creates a self-reinforcing cycle that amplifies its effects exponentially. In essence, the small amount of warming we introduce returns to us magnified, with cascading impacts on the planet. This continuous cycle not only accelerates ice loss and rising temperatures but also destabilizes global weather systems, fueling more intense and prolonged extreme weather events.
This is a critical reminder that even minor disturbances to the Earth’s energy balance can trigger far-reaching consequences, as the climate system responds in ways that amplify the initial impact.
Are there certain layers of the atmosphere more affected by climate change than others? If so, how?
All layers are affected in some way, but the lowest layer, the troposphere, undergoes pronounced warming due to trapped heat, while the stratosphere cools as less heat escapes upward. This thermal stratification imbalance perturbs atmospheric circulation, magnifying the effects of turbulent flow dynamics in weather systems. It also exacerbates the positive feedback loops within the Earth system, further driving changes in weather patterns.
How is climate change influencing air travel, particularly regarding flight safety and efficiency?
The first thing I would say is that climate change is reshaping not only the dynamics of air travel but also all climate-sensitive industries in subtle but significant ways. One of the key challenges for aviation is the shift in jet streams—fast-moving air currents that planes rely on for efficient routes. As the atmosphere warms, jet streams become increasingly erratic, leading to longer flight durations, increased fuel consumption, and higher operational costs for airlines. Especially if you travel in the direction of the jet stream, you’ll reach your destination faster; however, if you move against it, you’ll burn more fuel, and the journey will take longer.
At the same time, turbulence, defined as fluid motion characterized by chaotic changes in pressure and velocity, is becoming more frequent and severe. Clear-air turbulence, in particular—caused by temperature and wind shear changes at high altitudes—often occurs without visual warning, making it harder for pilots to anticipate. While turbulence-related plane crashes remain extremely rare (accounting for just 0.06% of total accidents annually, according to the Aviation Safety Network), their growing prevalence increases the risks of injuries and discomfort for passengers and crew.
Another overlooked factor is the impact of colder air at cruising altitudes. As climate systems shift, cold air pockets can become more persistent in certain regions, requiring aircraft to burn more fuel to maintain optimal performance. Dispatchers play a critical role here, working behind the scenes to draw the most efficient routes—a delicate balance between avoiding turbulent zones, capitalizing on favourable winds, and minimizing fuel usage.
For passengers, the effects may feel subtle—a slightly longer flight, more frequent seatbelt sign warnings, or an unexpected mid-air jolt—but for airlines, this means rising costs, tighter margins, and logistical challenges. In a warming world, the skies are becoming more complex to navigate, underscoring the need for advanced meteorological systems to ensure safety and efficiency.
There’s been a noticeable rise in reports of in-flight turbulence. How is climate change contributing to this trend?
The increase in turbulence reports can be attributed to a combination of factors. On one hand, the rising number of flights nowadays means more opportunities for turbulence to be encountered and reported. However, the role of climate change in this trend is undeniable and increasingly significant.
A warming atmosphere increases the instability of air masses, particularly at cruising altitudes. As the planet heats up, temperature gradients between different air layers intensify, leading to clear-air turbulence—a type of turbulence that occurs without visible warning, such as clouds or storms. Enhanced wind shear within jet streams, a direct consequence of climate-driven disruptions, creates chaotic flow regimes in the upper atmosphere. This makes previously stable flight routes far more unpredictable.
Clear-air turbulence is particularly concerning because it forms suddenly and often cannot be detected by radar. It happens in cloudless regions, and pilots rely heavily on meteorological reports and real-time data to avoid these regions. However, with jet streams becoming more erratic, avoidance becomes increasingly challenging.
What used to be rare or mild pockets of turbulence are now being observed with greater frequency and intensity, forcing airlines to adapt with improved forecasting tools, real-time monitoring systems, and increasingly cautious flight planning.
Could you elaborate on the relationship between a warming atmosphere and the frequency/intensity of clear-air turbulence?
Increased global temperatures make the atmosphere more unstable, and wind shear within jet streams intensifies. Jet streams rely on temperature gradients between the equator and poles to maintain their flow. As the poles warm faster than the equator—a phenomenon known as polar amplification—these gradients become more erratic, disrupting jet streams and creating stronger turbulent flows. This directly increases the frequency and intensity of clear-air turbulence (CAT), which occurs without visual indicators like clouds, making it particularly dangerous and harder to predict.
Studies have quantified this trend: research published in Nature Climate Change estimates that clear-air turbulence in some regions could increase by up to 150% by mid-century under higher emissions scenarios. For instance, over the North Atlantic—a critical flight corridor—severe turbulence has already increased by approximately 55% since 1979. Such data underscores how even small increases in temperature translate into significant changes in upper-atmosphere conditions, amplifying turbulence risk.
For pilots and meteorologists, the challenge lies in forecasting these invisible, chaotic flows. While advanced models and real-time meteorological data have improved detection, the increasingly unpredictable nature of jet streams highlights the growing complexity of navigating our warming skies.
As a meteorologist, what advice would you give airlines and passengers regarding turbulence in a changing climate?
Turbulence is primarily a matter of comfort and in-cabin safety. It can be challenging due to sudden jolts or objects shifting within the cabin, but modern aircraft are designed to withstand even severe turbulence. Understanding this can help passengers feel more secure during flights despite the challenges posed by a warming atmosphere.
For airlines I can say that the key is to stay ahead of the turbulence caused by a changing atmosphere. Leveraging real-time meteorological data systems and investing in advanced predictive models specifically tuned to a warming Earth system are essential. Weather intelligence platforms can help dynamically identify and avoid turbulence zones, enabling dispatchers to create safer and more efficient routes. Regular updates to pilot training on turbulence management and incorporating turbulence-detection technology in aircraft can further minimize risks.
For passengers, my advice is straightforward but important: always prioritize safety protocols, such as keeping your seatbelt fastened during turbulence-prone periods, even when the seatbelt sign is off. As I mentioned earlier, while turbulence may feel unsettling, there’s no need for undue fear—plane crashes due to turbulence are among the rarest causes of aviation accidents, accounting for just 0.06% of incidents annually, as mentioned earlier.
What advancements in meteorological science are helping us better understand and mitigate the effects of climate change on air travel?
Recent advancements in meteorological science have significantly improved our ability to understand and manage the impacts of climate change on air travel. Satellite-based observations now provide high-resolution data on jet streams, wind shear, and atmospheric instability, enabling more accurate and timely turbulence forecasts. Earth system modelling offers a comprehensive approach to simulate how climate-driven changes in the atmosphere affect flight conditions over different timescales.
Additionally, airlines are increasingly using weather intelligence platforms to forecast turbulence and optimize flight efficiency and fuel usage. These platforms combine real-time weather data with operational analytics, giving airlines the tools to mitigate turbulence risks while reducing environmental impact and costs. Real-time data-sharing platforms, integrated into weather intelligence systems, allow airlines and dispatchers to respond adaptively to evolving atmospheric risks, optimizing flight paths to avoid turbulent zones.
Artificial intelligence and new forecasting techniques are further enhancing turbulence prediction accuracy by analyzing vast datasets and identifying patterns that may indicate future turbulence hotspots. For instance, predictive algorithms can incorporate historical turbulence data, current wind speeds, and temperature gradients to provide tailored recommendations for specific flight corridors.
As climate change continues to alter atmospheric conditions, the collaboration between meteorological science and aviation is more crucial than ever, ensuring safer and more efficient air travel in an increasingly unpredictable world.
MSc, Meteorological Engineer & Researcher Atmospheric Scientist, Co-Founder of WeatherX
