According to new industry forecasts, Apple could overtake Samsung as the world’s leading smartphone manufacturer by 2025. Samsung currently has a 3 per cent lead in the global market, but analysts expect Cupertino to get a major boost during the last two quarters of the year. Apple also continues to dominate the tablet market. The deadly trio: iPhone SE 4, Apple Intelligence, and the unexpected success of older models in emerging markets.

This boost is clearly due to the release of the new iPhone 16 and 16 Pro, announced in September. Although it appears that the launch of the iPhone 16 and 16 Plus models was underwhelming, analysts still expect that the performance of the two high-end iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max will be sufficient to ensure overtaking Samsung. Analytics firm Counterpoint provides data on the potential overtaking, making Apple the world’s leading smartphone manufacturer after years of Samsung’s leadership.

Apple to the leading line

The researchers recall that the fall season, dominated by the release of new iPhones, usually marks a substantial recovery for Apple, which historically has been able to catch up thanks to high demand for its products. However, predictions provided by Tech Insights indicate that this trend will continue into the first half of 2025, leading Apple to finally overtake its Korean rival. Apple’s success, paradoxically, also (if not primarily) rests on the solid performance of some older models, which are doing very strongly in emerging markets such as India and China.

In addition to the factors mentioned above, Apple’s success in 2025 will be driven by an ever-expanding and increasingly integrated ecosystem of services. Apple Music, Apple Pay, Apple TV+, and other services help build customer loyalty and create a comprehensive and fulfilling user experience beyond just using the device. This synergy between hardware, software, and services is a significant competitive advantage for Apple and propels it toward leadership in the global smartphone market.

In markets where consumers have strong purchasing power, the focus is on the iPhone 16, driven by new Apple Intelligence features, while elsewhere, it is performing well, maybe the older iPhone 13 and 14. According to Tech Insights, the iPhone SE 4 factor is not underestimated. The new entry-level, expected in early 2025, will likely be Apple’s first smartphone to sport a proprietary modem. Its features will combine specifications from the last three generations, from the iPhone 14 to the iPhone 16, all at an attractive price that could appeal to many consumers: talk of less than $500.

These markets are no longer “minor”

Apple should benefit from this favourable juncture; its main competitors will probably not be as lucky. Staying in China, it is expected that, despite the recent launch of HarmonyOS Next, Huawei will continue to be adversely affected by some supply chain issues, which the website Android Headlines will negatively affect its ability to compete on equal terms with Apple and Samsung in the global market.

The global smartphone market is facing a shift, particularly in India, one of its fastest-growing regions. Reliance Jio, a major player in the low-cost segment, is sticking with 4G feature phones instead of moving to 5G smartphones. This could hinder the growth of affordable smartphones in India, potentially creating an opportunity for Apple to dominate the premium and mid-range markets. The Indian smartphone market is experiencing an explosive growth phase fueled by several factors. Rising middle-class disposable income, the expansion of low-cost 4G networks, and the rapid digitisation of the Indian economy drive smartphone demand.

For their part, manufacturers are offering a wide range of models with innovative features at competitive prices, further contributing to this boom. In India, demand for low-cost smartphones is particularly strong, but there is also growing interest in 5G models with the arrival of new networks. Companies focus on the user experience, improving aspects such as camera, battery, and performance. In addition, the Indian government is incentivising local smartphone production, attracting investment from international companies. Despite challenges such as limited penetration in rural areas and the digital divide, India’s smartphone market has enormous potential for growth and innovation. It is set to consolidate as one of the most important in the world.