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Quantum leap or quantum winter? The EU faces an innovation crossroads

The European Union (EU) has before it the threat of a “quantum winter,” as it is behind in the development of quantum technologies. Quantum advancements are considered one of the most disruptive technologies, and the EU is behind the leading players: the United States (US) and China.

Regulatory fragmentation, the scarcity of private investment, and the lack of a unified strategy threaten the European continent with, once again, missing the train of innovation.

These are some of the conclusions of the report Quantum Technologies: how to bet and get it right from Spain and the EU, prepared by the Spanish Elcano Royal Institute and the research center Tecnalia.

What is quantum mechanics?

Quantum mechanics was born in Europe at the beginning of the past century, trying to explain phenomena to which classical physics could not respond.

Werner Heisenberg, Max Planck, Albert Einstein, Erwin Schrödinger, and Niels Bohr built the foundations of the science that can explain nature, but the rest of the quantum building has been built by others, mainly the United States and China, with two different models: private the former and public the latter.

In this way, Europe has again left in foreign hands the development of science that, according to the report, “has the potential to transform key sectors such as cybersecurity, industry, health, and defense.”

Joined EU effort for quantum

According to the researchers, the EU must adopt a more integrated approach with instruments such as the Quantum Act and the STEP Platform to enhance technological sovereignty.

Moreover, the EU has to go for more specialised areas in the field. The work of the Elcano Institute and Tecnalia, although it admits the North American and Chinese leadership in computing and communications, defends that there is still room to recover strategic sovereignty in this field, especially in quantum chips (processors) and sensors, which demand high specialisation, present less global competition, and are key for sectors such as biotechnology and defence.

The path to rectifying the current trajectory is difficult because it implies overcoming the limitations that have led Europe to this situation of dependence: the lack of public-private coordination, the deficient transfer of knowledge, the dispersion or fragmentation of initiatives, and the weakness of viable industrial ecosystems.

However, at stake is not only European independence in strategic technologies but also a quantum market that could contribute, according to the report, up to 850 billion euros to the economy in the coming decades in industrial, financial, scientific research, technological (in combination with artificial intelligence), and cybersecurity applications.

Spending big on quantum

As of now, Europe is the second biggest spender of public money in the quantum field, with 10.9 billion from 2021 to 2027 (second only to China, spending 15.3 billion euros).

The US surpasses both of these powers, but the weight, over 80%, falls on private companies. Included in the group of major investors are the United Kingdom, Canada, India, Japan, and South Korea.

Nonetheless, the study remarks on the importance of quantum technology for Europe.

“The quantum revolution is not an option; it is a strategic imperative. Spain and the EU face a unique opportunity to position themselves at the forefront of technological innovation, but this requires determination, investment, and long-term vision,” the study remarks.

“It’s not just about competing, but about building our own capabilities that guarantee our technological sovereignty and leadership in an increasingly dependent world on quantum computing, security, and quantum intelligence,” the paper concludes.

Marc Cervera is a freelance journalist based in Barcelona, Spain, with over four years of experience contributing to leading Spanish and international media outlets. He holds a double degree in Journalism and Political Science from Universitat Abat Oliba and an MA in Political Science from the University of Essex. Marc has lived in the US, UK, Spain, and the Netherlands, and his work primarily explores economics, innovation, and politics.