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IBM predicts open source AI boom in 2025

Open source AI tools might be more profitable than closed-source ones. An IBM-commissioned study shows that 51% of surveyed companies currently utilizing open-source AI tools report seeing a positive return on investment (ROI), as compared to just 41% of those that don’t.

In 2024, only 14% of companies were seeing a negative ROI from their AI projects. Almost half, 47%, reported achieving a positive ROI, while one-third said they were breaking even. The rest, 6%, said that it is “difficult” to measure the return from their AI projects.

“As organizations begin to implement AI at scale, many are placing greater stock in success metrics such as productivity gains, in part because traditional hard dollar ROI benefits have yet to show up on the balance sheets,” says Maribel Lopez of Lopez Research, who conducted the study with Morning Consult. “Yet, companies continue to rapidly advance their AI strategies, with no sign of slowing down. Companies now recognise the value of defining specific use cases and optimising AI projects. They are leveraging hybrid cloud strategies and open source to drive AI innovation and deliver financial returns,” she continues.

62% of businesses to increase AI-spending

2025 is also set to be a good year for AI investment as nine out of ten (89%) of surveyed organizations are planning to either increase or maintain their investment in AI in 2025, with 62% planning to increase the budget.

Companies are focusing on specific areas to allocate their AI investments, explains IBM. According to the study, IT operations are the top focus area for 63% of respondents, followed by data quality management (46%) and product/services innovation (41%). When asked what strategic changes will be made in 2025, respondents identify using managed cloud services (51%), hiring specialized talent (48%) and utilizing open source (48%) among the most common ways they plan to optimize their AI investments.

The study also explains that most companies report making progress in executing their AI strategies, with 58% of respondents saying their company typically moves from AI pilot to full production in less than a year.

Open source AI ecosystems are still the majority

Open ecosystems are present in 61% of all the AI tools from the consulted companies. Open-source is especially popular in Mexico (65%), Spain (66%), Indonesia (73%), South Korea (75%), and India (89%), where two-thirds or more indicate that their company is sourcing their AI tools via open-source ecosystems.

Moreover, over 80% of the surveyed companies reported that at least a quarter of their company’s AI solutions or platforms are based on open source. Furthermore, more AI solutions are expected to be based on open source in the coming year (41% in 2025 vs. 37% in 2024). The researchers also explain that as the company size increases, so does the likelihood that most AI solutions are based on open-source tools. Among the largest companies, those with over 5,000 employees, 49% use open-source solutions.

The study polled 2,413 IT decision makers (ITDMs), was conducted by Morning Consult, and was developed in collaboration with Lopez Research. Morning Consult conducted a survey from October 30 to November 13, 2024, among a total sample of IT decision-makers (ITDMs) in the US, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, UK, France, Germany, Spain, India, Singapore, Indonesia, and South Korea. The interviews were conducted online with respondents employed at companies with 101 employees or more.

Marc Cervera is a freelance journalist based in Barcelona, Spain, with over four years of experience contributing to leading Spanish and international media outlets. He holds a double degree in Journalism and Political Science from Universitat Abat Oliba and an MA in Political Science from the University of Essex. Marc has lived in the US, UK, Spain, and the Netherlands, and his work primarily explores economics, innovation, and politics.