In the last few years, Bulgaria has quietly reshaped its energy profile—largely thanks to a sharp rise in solar power installations. As of mid-2024, solar photovoltaics account for more than half of the country’s total renewable energy capacity, reaching 3,612 MW out of 6,757 MW. This marks a decisive shift, with solar overtaking hydropower, which for decades had been the backbone of Bulgaria’s green energy landscape.

The growth of solar power has followed two key phases. The first came between 2010 and 2012, when generous feed-in tariffs and long-term power purchase agreements attracted waves of investors. After a lull, the second boom arrived post-2021, fuelled by high electricity prices and a heightened urgency for energy independence. Photovoltaics became an increasingly appealing option, thanks to their lower operating costs and attractive return on investment.

Wind power, however, tells a different story. Most of Bulgaria’s turbines were installed before 2013, and since then the sector has remained stagnant—despite the country’s potential. Plans for wind projects in the Black Sea remain on the drawing board, blocked by technical, regulatory, and social obstacles. Meanwhile, hydropower has seen minimal expansion since 1999, with most of its capacity in place well before alternative renewables gained momentum.

Forecasts suggest that the solar boom will continue into 2025, with an additional 1,000 to 1,500 MW of capacity expected. Other technologies, however, are unlikely to follow suit due to a lack of coordinated policy and limited investor confidence.

Infrastructure bottlenecks and policy paralysis

Despite the impressive numbers, the expansion of renewables has exposed the limitations of Bulgaria’s national grid. Transmission and distribution infrastructure is struggling to keep pace. A key issue, according to industry insiders, is the lack of substations able to absorb new capacity. Investors are sometimes required to build substations themselves—not because they’re needed immediately, but because the grid would otherwise risk instability.

Energy storage is another missing link. While government plans have floated the idea of integrating batteries into large solar parks, no major projects are operational. For now, storage remains limited to isolated private initiatives, lacking the scale and coherence of a national strategy. Without significant storage capacity, integrating intermittent sources like solar and wind becomes increasingly difficult.

Luba Nikiforova, a certified electricity trader and expert in hydrogen energy, believes Bulgaria still has a long way to go. Years of political instability and caretaker governments have delayed long-term energy planning. However, she is cautiously optimistic that the country’s newly formed coalition could finally bring direction and structure to the sector.

Nikiforova envisions a future where renewables could make up as much as 75% of Bulgaria’s energy mix. She sees this being achieved through a combination of large-scale, centrally planned projects and smaller decentralised systems, including residential solar. However, she stresses that infrastructure remains the weak link: while private capital may flow into generation projects, grid upgrades require public investment and strategic foresight.

She draws a compelling parallel with Bulgaria’s digital infrastructure. “Because we started from scratch, our internet systems are among the best in Europe. The same could happen with our energy grid—if we act wisely,” she notes.

Building trust, not just capacity

Alongside infrastructure, social acceptance is a growing concern. Misinformation and lack of public awareness have led to resistance—especially against wind power. Nikiforova highlights the need for national information campaigns to counteract myths and build support for renewable energy. Without public buy-in, even the most promising projects can face delays or cancellations.

She also points to Bulgaria’s underexplored potential in geothermal energy and the limited use of biomass. While solar PV has flourished, other technologies remain underdeveloped—not due to lack of resources, but due to missing incentives, political inertia, and low awareness.

Institutionally, things are beginning to shift. European policy and funding frameworks are pushing Bulgaria to simplify licensing procedures and create a more investor-friendly environment. Bureaucracy is still a challenge, but progress is visible.

For Nikiforova, the energy transition is not merely a technical challenge—it is a test of political will and civic engagement. “We’re at a crossroads,” she says. “With the right policies, infrastructure, and public understanding, Bulgaria can become a model for sustainable and inclusive energy development.”

The full investigation is available in English in the form of a dedicated eBook [HERE], providing a comprehensive resource for researchers, journalists, policymakers, and citizens seeking a deeper understanding of how Southern and Southeastern Europe is navigating the age of clean energy.

This investigation was developed with the support of Journalismfund Europe.