The Atlantic is preparing for a record 2025 cyclone season, with forecasts that are worrying experts and coastal communities. NOAA (American Oceanographic and Meteorological Agency) meteorologists have just published their predictions for the months of June to November, and they describe a catastrophic picture: a total of 19 tropical storms could form in the waters of the Atlantic, with a 60 per cent chance that cyclonic activity will be above average. This comes at an awkward time for the US agency, which is facing profound staff cuts at a time when its warning and monitoring capability is most needed.
The report is based on a complex analysis of climate factors and the use of increasingly sophisticated forecasting tools, including significant advances in artificial intelligence and numerical simulation models. Statistics show that an average cyclonic season in the Atlantic sees 14 tropical storms, 7 of which strengthen into hurricanes and only three into high-intensity categories. For 2025, however, forecasts are for much more: between 13 and 19 storms are likely to form, of which 6-10 are likely to grow into hurricanes with winds over 120 km/h. More troubling is an estimate that 3 to 5 of these events could become major hurricanes, with the capability to generate catastrophic winds over 178 km/h.
A warming sea, an increasing threat
The recent years have seen high accuracy in NOAA’s spring predictions, with only two significant exceptions in 2017 and 2020, when the phenomena’s actuality exceeded even the worst projections. The year 2025 has several conditions that are conducive to the formation of tropical cyclones: warmer-than-average sea temperatures, the predicted decrease in wind aloft strength, and more active monsoon activity from West Africa. Together, these conditions create the ideal environment for the development and consolidation of tropical disturbances. The choice of the city of New Orleans to make public these predictions is not accidental.
The city, whose districts were devastated 20 years ago by Hurricane Katrina, one of the costliest natural disasters in US history, stands as a warning of the devastation that can be caused by these phenomena. The anniversary of that disaster aligns with fresh fears regarding the next season, which makes the timing of the announcement even more symbolic. In a paradox that does not elude meteorological specialists, just when it would be required to reinforce monitoring and warning systems, NOAA is dealing with a major cut in staff. In fact, the Department of Government Efficiency (DGE) has ordered the elimination of hundreds of researchers and technicians, weakening the agency’s ability to collect and analyse vital climate data. This diminishing of resources is occurring at the worst possible time, with the prospect of an extremely bad cyclone season.
Using AI is a value
An increasingly crucial role in this progress is being played by artificial intelligence. Although seasonal forecasting is derived from a combination of historical climate pattern analysis, current observations and established numerical models, AI is permeating and enhancing many aspects of the forecasting process. AI is being used to analyse huge amounts of data from satellites, ocean buoys, drones and reconnaissance aircraft (so-called “hurricane chasers”), identifying correlations and patterns that might escape human analysis or traditional models. This helps improve the accuracy of forecasts of hurricane trajectory and, above all, intensity, including rapid intensification, one of the most difficult to predict and most dangerous phenomena.
A better monitoring system
The effects of the cuts are already being felt in some operational procedures. A few meteorological centres have begun reducing the volume of atmospheric data gathered regarding hurricanes by weather balloons, essential tools for monitoring weather systems and storm development forecasts. For the most vulnerable coastal communities, this decrease in warning capability is a further source of concern in the lead-up to the summer and fall seasons.
The 2025 cyclone season thus has the potential to be a test not only of the strength of coastal infrastructure but of the effectiveness of a weather monitoring system that appears to be compromised at the very moment that it needs to be most operational. Inhabitants of the imperilled areas are looking nervously out at the Atlantic horizon, where warming waters could be spawning storms of record intensity, while those charged with monitoring them must do it with diminishing equipment and too few personnel.
